El-Erian's summary is accurate. But it fails to deal - for reasons obviously applicable to orthodox economists - with the factors people like Goodhart and Pettis emphasise. (I'm surprised Paul Krugman isn't joining them.)
These have to do with the limits reached by "the mobilisation of resources" (Krugman's happy phrase) in Oriental despotism states - China, India, Russia. To quote Coxy Rebels (British punk rock of the 70s):
"There ain't no more/
You've taken everything".
The only option for these exhausted regimes now is either autarky (notice India's atavistic attachment to Russia and Xi's utterly hopeless clinging to an alliance with a failing Russian economy and state) or else the opening up of their economies to the West, which will quite simply exacerbate the gaping inequality of these societies with attendant social unrest.
OF COURSE! The capitalist West is now desperate for these autarkic, "dual circulation" regimes ..."to open up" so as to give them some breathing space to reform their own troubled systems.
All the triumphalism of the immediate NATO rally after the Ukraine invasion simply cannot hide the huge seismic "faults" opening up in the West - to which, in fairness, El-Erian makes reference via the allusion to..."unsustainable fiscal deficits just as inflation soars"!