Thursday, 1 September 2011

China and "the Train-Wreck" of its Economy


I really have no time for fools, and I do not suffer them lightly. Anyone who reads this Blog will know that every single prediction I have made (not "forecasts", I leave those to the fumblers and jugglers of "figures and data") in the past two years has come true with a vengeance.... and I am too busy with my own blog and my "Nietzschebuch". Let me just refer to today's article in the FT from Robert Zoelliock (he of the World Bank, where I have many friends) and this review by Karen Maley: http://www.busines...rc=sph&src=rot

I agree that the People's Liberation Army of China (what a misnomer) will protect the interests of the Chinese dictatorship more robustly than the US Congress - for the simple reason that they have no delusions about "free and open markets". All the same, the Chinese dictatorship's "mobilisation of resources" is coming to an end - ageing population, environmental and social catastrophes, slowing productivity, rising costs, woefully unprofitable fixed capital and infrastructure "investments", burgeoning bad loans, surging costs and domestic inflation (due to low currency and Fed QEs).... that "train-wreck" I predicted before 200 poor people died in that horrific accident, literally "covered up" by the dictatorship with dirt before the bodies in the carriages could be retrieved... a far greater "wreck" is coming, and the even greater fools who have been buying stocks in the past two weeks will soon regret it (on a more "practical" note). Cheers.
Incidentally, the FT had banned me "until the end of August", but my Blog is flying and so are my appropriate insults - which you can view by googling!

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