Biden’s slow delivery of U.S. arms has hurt Kyiv’s counteroffensive and plays into Donald Trump’s hands.
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Jack Watling, a military analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, recently noted the “significant deficiencies” in the West’s delivery of equipment in the fight. “The disarray among Russian forces in the winter of 2022–3 following a chaotic mobilisation and a lack of preparedness for winter warfare left them vulnerable early in 2023,” Mr. Watling writes.
Yet Western weapons for the offensive didn’t start arriving in earnest until February and March. In other words, the U.S. and Europe squandered an opening to get the Russians on the run before they dug in trenches and fortified concrete.
The latest fiasco is F-16 fighter jets. The Ukrainians are trying to fight a combined-arms campaign like a Western military would—but without the air power NATO forces rely on. Mr. Biden dithered for a year before approving training for Ukrainian pilots in May. The training is only now getting started.
Mr. Biden doesn’t seem to appreciate what a stalemate or worse might cost the U.S. strategically, and himself politically. The Ukrainian spirit of resistance ranks with London in the Blitz, but it needs continuing Western support to keep up the fight. Mr. Putin’s bet is that he can wait out the West and eventually strike a “peace” accord on his terms.
At home, Mr. Biden risks playing into the hands of such critics as Donald Trump, who would cut off support for Ukraine. Most Republicans in Congress have supported aid to Ukraine, and credit in particular goes to Sens. Mitch McConnell and Tom Cotton—despite Mr. Biden’s rhetoric that all Republicans are “MAGA.”
But a failed counteroffensive, and an extended military stalemate that stretches into 2024, risks eroding U.S. public support as GOP voters become more restive amid Mr. Trump’s campaign assault. Mr. Biden has never given a serious speech making the case for the U.S. security interest in Ukraine and how he hopes the war will end.
Perhaps the President figures ambiguity will give him more flexibility to negotiate a settlement. But if Mr. Biden wants Congress to pass his aid package, he has to make a better case than he has and spend the political capital like the Commander in Chief.
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